资本要素市场化改革、对外直接投资与技术创新绩效

对外直接投资对母国产业的技术创新具有反哺促进效应,但同时受资本要素市场扭曲的调节作用影响。本文运用2003~2016年的面板数据,设定双因素基准模型并进行东、中、西部地区分样本回归以检验资本要素市场扭曲对OFDI的技术创新的调节作用。结果发现:OFDI通过逆向技术溢出促进了母国的企业技术创新绩效。同时,资本要素市场扭曲抑制了OFDI反哺技术创新绩效的正向作用,且资本要素市场扭曲对OFDI的技术创新的调节效应存在地区差异性。因此,深化要素市场化改革,调整对外直接投资结构和优化营商环境,是实现OFDI协调发展以推动技术创新绩效提升的有效途径。     

产业集聚、市场集中对区域创新能力的作用——基于京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业的比较

产业集聚和市场集中是影响区域创新能力的重要因素。本文考察了京津冀、长三角两大经济圈制造业产业集聚与市场集中对区域技术创新能力的作用。实证分析结果表明：两大经济圈制造业集聚与市场集中均在一定程度上促进了区域创新能力的提升，但由于两大区域体制机制条件、创新环境、产业组织形态等不同，制造业产业集聚影响区域技术创新的程度、特征与路径也存在一定差别。两大经济圈应采取差异化集群发展方式，加快推进制造业集群升级，特别是应抢抓第四次工业革命发展机遇，提升制造业智能化水平，提升区域创新能力水平。     

地方政府土地财政依赖一定会推高城市一级土地市场化水平吗? ——基于2003—2015年中国省级面板数据的检验

研究目的：在深入分析地方政府土地财政依赖对城市一级土地市场作用机理的基础上，利用2003—2015年中国31个省（市、区）（不包括港澳台地区）的面板数据进行计量检验，测定地方政府土地财政依赖度对城市一级土地市场化率的影响程度。研究方法：计量经济分析方法。研究结果：为弥补地方政府土地财政缺口的刚性需求，地方政府领导人会权变地选择一级土地市场上各类用地的出让方式和出让量。土地财政依赖度与城市一级土地市场化率之间存在倒U型关系。研究结论：当土地财政依赖度与一级土地市场化率均较低时，地方政府会在一级土地市场上出让土地时适当增加“招拍挂”的比例，从而在提高土地财政依赖度的同时提升一级土地市场化率；当土地财政依赖度较高但一级土地市场化率较低时，地方政府会增加一级土地市场上“招拍挂”的比例，在降低土地财政依赖程度的同时提升一级土地市场化率。     

Financial development,economic growth and convergence clubs

To study the role of financial development in economic growth, we apply an array of convergence tests designed to capture nonlinear transitional dynamics to real outputs per capita. Strong evidence of multiple convergence clubs is observed, implying that the clubs are formed based on the initial level of real output per capita and average growth rate. Our empirical results show that the stage of economic growth of each country plays an important role for the composition of the convergence clubs. Furthermore, financial development emerges to be a significant determinant, albeit plays differently in the economic growth of each convergence club.     

Forecasting stock price volatility: New evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS model

This paper introduces a combination of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects in order to build superior extensions of the GARCH-MIDAS model for modeling and forecasting the stock volatility. Our in-sample results clearly verify that extreme shocks have a significant impact on the stock volatility and that the volatility can be influenced more by the asymmetry effect than by the extreme volatility effect in both the long and short term. Out-of-sample results with several robustness checks demonstrate that our proposed models can achieve better performances in forecasting the volatility. Furthermore, the improvement in predictive ability is attributed more strongly to the introduction of asymmetry and extreme volatility effects for the short-term volatility component.     

Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.     

Random mechanisms for house allocation with existing tenants

We study the house allocation problem with existing tenants: $n$ houses (stand for “indivisible objects”) are to be allocated to $n$ agents; each agent needs exactly one house and has strict preferences; $k$ houses are initially unowned; $k$ agents initially do not own houses; the remaining $n-k$ agents (the so-called “existing tenants”) initially own the remaining $n-k$ houses (each owns one). In this setting, we consider various randomized allocation rules under which voluntary participation of existing tenants is assured and the randomization procedure either treats agents equally or discriminates against some (or all) of the existing tenants. We obtain two equivalence results, which generalize the equivalence results in Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez (1999) and Sönmez and Ünver (2005).     

Ex-post incentive compatible and individually rational assignments in housing markets with interdependent values

This paper presents a model for housing markets with interdependent values. We introduce private information on the quality of a house (i.e., high or low), which is known only to the initial owner. Interdependency means that the ex-post preference of an agent depends on the private information of the other agents with regard to the quality of houses. We prove that on a domain satisfying a richness condition, the no-trade rule is the only rule that satisfies ex-post incentive compatibility and ex-post individual rationality.     

The State as Both Regulator and Player: The Politics of Transfer of Development Rights in China

The conventional argument that the introduction of transfer of development rights (TDR) shifts the power of land use regulation from the state to the market is increasingly under challenge. In China, the state's grip on land is reinforced through TDR, in which the state is both regulator and player. This state-dominated form of TDR affects China in three ways. First, competing aspirations of different scales of government complicate how TDR is implemented. Although the central state promotes TDR to maintain a national balance of arable land, some local states instrumentalize it to expand their landed basis of accumulation. Secondly, TDR tends to benefit the state but not its people. It may increase the fiscal income of the sending government and lessen the land shortage of the receiving government, but sometimes at the expense of the interests of land users without land ownership. Thirdly, given the state's deep involvement in TDR programs, the key for China's TDR to protect arable land lies not so much in clear property rights or a fully fledged market as in effective checks and balances regarding the state's powers over TDR. These three observations attest to the embeddedness of TDR in the local political economy.     

Financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms facing foreign competition: Evidence from trade liberalization

This study examines financial analyst coverage for U.S. firms following an increase in foreign product market competition. To capture exogenous shocks to domestic firms' competitive environments, we exploit a quasi‐natural experiment from large import tariff reductions over the 1984 to 2005 period in the manufacturing sector. Using data for the years before and after large tariff reductions, our difference‐in‐differences analysis shows evidence of a significant decrease in analyst coverage for incumbent U.S. firms when they face greater entry threat from foreign competitors. We also find that analysts with less firm‐specific experience and less accurate prior‐period forecasts are more likely to stop following the domestic firm when foreign competition intensifies. Overall, the findings suggest that foreign product market competition from global trade liberalization is an important determinant of financial analysts' coverage decisions.